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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 61

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:49) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to CIN 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-B.Tate to CIN 33 for 18 yards (28-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.79 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model