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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(:41) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 35 yards to CIN 41, Center-46-M.Cox. 24-A.Jones to CIN 41 for no gain (12-D.Waller).

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.67 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model