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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 2

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +3.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.20 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 2, worth +0.72 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP