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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 2

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 85-T.Eifert for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short left to 85-T.Eifert (28-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO +4.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.41 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 2, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model