Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(6:37) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 89-S.Smith for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. No. 27 - Kilpatrick (CIN) injured on play. Smith makes catch at CIN45, breaks two tackles and runs down right sideline for TD.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP

What Happened

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.67 EP

KICK -1.61 EP

21% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
79% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model