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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(4:37) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 15-M.Campanaro to BAL 36 for 21 yards (46-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.20 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP