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Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2015-09-27 · 16:25 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 16.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

CHI
28.7%
SEA
71.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI defense: +0.380 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Russell Wilson (SEA) -0.085 vs Jimmy Clausen (CHI) -0.442 EPA/dropback (CHI starting Jimmy Clausen in place of Jay Cutler)
  • CHI offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 18
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: SEA by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

CHI

Jay Cutler QB Out Hamstring
Alshon Jeffery WR Out Hamstring
Jon Bostic LB Doubtful Ankle
Ego Ferguson DE Questionable Knee
Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Knee
Tracy Porter CB Questionable Hamstring
Eddie Royal WR Questionable Back
Matt Slauson G Probable Thigh
Marquess Wilson WR Probable Shoulder
Matt Forte RB Probable Knee

SEA

Tharold Simon CB Out Toe
Steven Terrell S Out Hip
Marshawn Lynch RB Questionable Calf
Luke Willson TE Questionable Back
Michael Bennett DE Probable Toe
Tarvaris Jackson QB Probable Ankle
Michael Morgan LB Probable Hamstring
Bobby Wagner LB Probable Ankle
Cary Williams CB Probable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 0
–
SEA 26

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:20 FG SEA (5:20) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. CHI 0 – SEA 3
  • Q2 00:02 FG SEA (:02) 4-S.Hauschka 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. CHI 0 – SEA 6
  • Q3 15:00 TD SEA 9-R.Gould kicks 70 yards from CHI 35 to SEA -5. 16-T.Lockett for 105 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – SEA 12
  • Q3 04:36 TD SEA (4:36) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 88-J.Graham for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – SEA 19
  • Q4 14:08 FG SEA (14:08) 4-S.Hauschka 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. CHI 0 – SEA 23
  • Q4 06:21 FG SEA (6:21) 4-S.Hauschka 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. CHI 0 – SEA 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:39) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to SEA 34, Center-43-T.Gafford. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 44 for 10 yards (43-T.Gafford).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 26%

    (11:24) 9-J.Ryan punts 46 yards to CHI 4, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-28-M.Burley.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (7:03) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to SEA 17, Center-43-T.Gafford. 25-R.Sherman to CHI 19 for 64 yards (57-L.Barrow).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 95%

    (5:20) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (3:18) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to SEA 27, Center-43-T.Gafford. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 26 for -1 yards (11-J.Bellamy).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 20%

    (:11) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to CHI 8, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 37%

    (8:37) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 32 yards to SEA 13, Center-43-T.Gafford, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis. Chicago challenged the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3 at 08:26.)

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:06) 9-J.Ryan punts 39 yards to CHI 44, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-28-M.Burley. PENALTY on CHI-25-K.Carey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 44.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 12 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 22%

    (2:44) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 32 yards to SEA 20, Center-43-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 80%

    (:26) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 24-M.Lynch pushed ob at CHI 18 for 9 yards (24-A.Ball).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (:02) 4-S.Hauschka 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 17 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (13:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to SEA 14, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:23) 9-J.Ryan punts 36 yards to CHI 29, Center-49-C.Gresham, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (2:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to SEA 11, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 80%

    (14:08) 4-S.Hauschka 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (12:36) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-43-T.Gafford, Touchback.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 42%

    (8:40) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 88-J.Graham to CHI 37 for 6 yards (92-P.McPhee) [99-L.Houston].

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 74%

    (6:21) 4-S.Hauschka 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:29) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to SEA 29, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.