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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 27

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 4-S.Hauschka 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.41 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 27, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model