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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 54

Chicago Bears 0 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to SEA 11, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.63 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 54, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP