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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 13

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.41 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 13, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +2.54 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.45 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model