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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 45

Chicago Bears 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 32 yards to SEA 13, Center-43-T.Gafford, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis. Chicago challenged the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3 at 08:26.)

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.61 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -1.48 EP
KICK -0.25 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP