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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 65

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 9-J.Ryan punts 36 yards to CHI 29, Center-49-C.Gresham, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.72 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model