Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 75

Chicago Bears 0 – Seattle Seahawks 26

(4:29) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to SEA 29, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model