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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Jim Tomsula
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2015-09-20 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

SF
51.0%
PIT
49.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT defense: +0.295 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.156 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.227 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): +0.431 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF defense: -0.344 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • PIT on 4 more days rest than SF
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

SF 26
–
PIT 24
Projected margin: SF by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

SF

Reggie Bush RB Out Calf
Bruce Ellington WR Questionable Ankle

PIT

Cortez Allen CB Questionable Knee
Will Allen S Probable Concussion
Brandon Boykin CB Probable Groin
Landry Jones QB Probable Concussion
Michael Mitchell S Probable Hip
Ryan Shazier LB Probable Knee
Sean Spence LB Probable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 18
–
PIT 43

Prediction missed by 27 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:20 TD PIT (4:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 83-H.Miller for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – PIT 6
  • Q2 10:32 FG SF (10:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-P.Dawson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – PIT 8
  • Q2 08:11 TD PIT (8:11) (No Huddle) 34-De.Williams left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – PIT 14
  • Q2 05:52 TD PIT (5:52) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 88-D.Heyward-Bey for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – PIT 22
  • Q2 02:00 TD PIT (2:00) (Shotgun) 34-De.Williams up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – PIT 28
  • Q4 13:22 TD SF (13:22) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 81-A.Boldin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SF 9 – PIT 29
  • Q4 10:32 TD PIT (10:32) 34-De.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SF 10 – PIT 35
  • Q4 09:55 TD SF (9:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep middle to 82-T.Smith for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – PIT 36
  • Q4 07:49 TD PIT (7:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 84-A.Brown for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 18 – PIT 42

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:46) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to PIT 17, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (:25) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to PIT 22, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:11) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to SF 10, Center-60-G.Warren. 38-J.Hayne to SF 17 for 7 yards (98-V.Williams).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 90%

    (5:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 85-V.Davis to PIT 12 for 7 yards (41-A.Blake).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 98%

    (3:51) (Shotgun) 22-M.Davis up the middle to PIT 2 for 1 yard (50-R.Shazier; 93-C.Thomas). Pittsburgh challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 98%

    (1:57) 7-C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short right to 49-B.Miller (94-L.Timmons). San Francisco challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #1 at 01:51.)

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:20) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 62 yards to SF 32, Center-60-G.Warren. 18-D.White to SF 36 for 4 yards (20-W.Allen).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

    (13:22) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 81-A.Boldin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (2:40) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick scrambles right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick scrambles right tackle to PIT 1 for 2 yards (48-B.Dupree).