Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 94

Pittsburgh Steelers 29 – San Francisco 49ers 3

(:20) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 62 yards to SF 32, Center-60-G.Warren. 18-D.White to SF 36 for 4 yards (20-W.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.15 EP
55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 94, worth -5.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model