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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 3

San Francisco 49ers 18 – Pittsburgh Steelers 43

What Actually Happened

(2:40) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick scrambles right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick scrambles right tackle to PIT 1 for 2 yards (48-B.Dupree).

The Three Options

GO +3.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.68 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 3, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.68 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.26 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model