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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:46) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to PIT 17, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.13 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model