4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 29 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:11) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to SF 10, Center-60-G.Warren. 38-J.Hayne to SF 17 for 7 yards (98-V.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.05 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model