4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 19

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 29

What Actually Happened

(5:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 85-V.Davis to PIT 12 for 7 yards (41-A.Blake).

The Three Options

GO +3.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.79 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model