Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 64

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 29

(:25) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to PIT 22, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.08 EP
49% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -2.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model