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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
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New York Giants

HC Tom Coughlin
Sunday 2015-09-20 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

ATL
37.6%
NYG
62.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • NYG offense: +0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Eli Manning (NYG): -0.001 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Eli Manning (NYG) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

ATL 19
–
NYG 24
Projected margin: NYG by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

ATL

Malliciah Goodman DE Out Elbow
Devin Hester WR Out Toe
Brooks Reed LB Out Groin
Adrian Clayborn DE Probable Thumb
Julio Jones WR Probable Hamstring
Jake Matthews T Probable Back
William Moore S Probable Illness
O'Brien Schofield DE Probable Hip

NYG

Victor Cruz WR Out Calf
Daniel Fells TE Out Foot
Markus Kuhn DT Out Knee
Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE Out Foot
Jon Beason LB Doubtful Knee
Uani 'Unga LB Probable Knee
Ereck Flowers T Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 24
–
NYG 20

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:42 TD ATL (:42) 26-T.Coleman left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – NYG 0
  • Q2 10:36 FG NYG (10:36) 3-J.Brown 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. ATL 7 – NYG 3
  • Q2 04:50 FG ATL (4:50) 3-M.Bryant 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 10 – NYG 3
  • Q2 03:34 TD NYG (3:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – NYG 9
  • Q2 00:07 FG NYG (:07) 3-J.Brown 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. ATL 10 – NYG 13
  • Q3 11:00 TD NYG (11:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 84-L.Donnell for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-71-K.Biermann, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. ATL 10 – NYG 19
  • Q4 12:46 TD ATL (12:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 85-L.Hankerson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 16 – NYG 20
  • Q4 01:20 TD ATL (1:20) 24-D.Freeman left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. ATL 23 – NYG 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 36%

    (9:39) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 15 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:00) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to ATL 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 89%

    (10:36) 3-J.Brown 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 84%

    (4:50) 3-M.Bryant 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:42) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to NYG 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-D.Harris to NYG 25 for 5 yards (14-E.Weems, 71-K.Biermann).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 23%

    (1:32) 9-B.Wing punts 39 yards to ATL 11, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:10) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to NYG 28, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-D.Harris to NYG 34 for 6 yards (20-P.Adams). PENALTY on ATL-36-K.Ishmael, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 34.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:56) 5-M.Bosher punts 69 yards to NYG 8, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-D.Harris to NYG 34 for 26 yards (54-N.Stupar).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 50%

    (8:12) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to ATL 2, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:38) 5-M.Bosher punts 47 yards to NYG 7, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-D.Harris to NYG 36 for 29 yards (5-M.Bosher).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:23) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to ATL 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 14-E.Weems to ATL 30 for 10 yards (17-D.Harris, 59-D.Kennard).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 23%

    (:44) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep left to 15-P.Parker (52-J.Durant).