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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 61

New York Giants 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to ATL 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.18 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 20, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model