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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 61

New York Giants 20 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to ATL 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 14-E.Weems to ATL 30 for 10 yards (17-D.Harris, 59-D.Kennard).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.66 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 20, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model