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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 20

New York Giants 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 3-J.Brown 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.16 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model