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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 54

Atlanta Falcons 17 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 5-M.Bosher punts 47 yards to NYG 7, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-D.Harris to NYG 36 for 29 yards (5-M.Bosher).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.20 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 54, worth -2.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP