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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 50

New York Giants 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 9-B.Wing punts 39 yards to ATL 11, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.21 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 50, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model