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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 39

New York Giants 20 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to ATL 2, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.51 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -1.62 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP