4th & Data
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
Sunday 2015-09-13 · 13:00 Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

IND
46.5%
BUF
53.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Andrew Luck (IND): +0.218 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

IND 21
–
BUF 23
Projected margin: BUF by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

IND

Vick Ballard RB Out Hamstring
Gregory Toler CB Out Neck
Robert Mathis LB Questionable Achilles
D'Joun Smith CB Questionable Knee
Nate Irving LB Probable Knee
D'Qwell Jackson LB Probable Toe
Sheldon Price CB Probable Concussion
Bjoern Werner LB Probable Knee

BUF

Marquise Goodwin WR Out Ribs
Tony Steward LB Out Knee
Charles Clay TE Probable Knee
Percy Harvin WR Probable Hip
Chris Hogan WR Probable Knee
LeSean McCoy RB Probable Hamstring
Sammy Watkins WR Probable Hamstring
Mario Williams DE Probable Calf
Robert Woods WR Probable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 14
–
BUF 27

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:09 TD BUF (:09) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 18-P.Harvin for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line. IND 0 – BUF 6
  • Q2 07:53 FG BUF (7:53) 2-D.Carpenter 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. IND 0 – BUF 10
  • Q2 00:26 TD BUF (:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-Ka.Williams up the middle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – BUF 16
  • Q3 09:38 TD BUF (9:38) 26-A.Dixon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – BUF 23
  • Q3 00:57 TD IND (:57) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 10-D.Moncrief for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line, crossing from right. IND 6 – BUF 24
  • Q4 08:19 FG BUF (8:19) 2-D.Carpenter 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. IND 8 – BUF 27
  • Q4 06:00 TD IND (6:00) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 83-D.Allen for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-N.Bradham]. Caught at goal line, crossing from middle. IND 14 – BUF 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 14%

    (8:08) 6-C.Schmidt punts 44 yards to IND 9, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:22) 1-P.McAfee punts 47 yards to BUF 28, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 34 for 6 yards (92-B.Werner).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 16%

    (4:13) 6-C.Schmidt punts 44 yards to IND 8, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 15-P.Dorsett.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 11 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:19) 1-P.McAfee punts 48 yards to BUF 34, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 83%

    (7:53) 2-D.Carpenter 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 59%

    (2:47) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (:57) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 10-D.Moncrief for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line, crossing from right.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:33) 6-C.Schmidt punts 58 yards to IND 29, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 15-P.Dorsett MUFFS catch, and recovers at IND 24. 15-P.Dorsett to IND 25 for 1 yard (33-R.Brooks).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:27) 1-P.McAfee punts 46 yards to BUF 29, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-M.Thigpen. Penalty on BUF-26-A.Dixon, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 11 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:56) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to IND 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 15-P.Dorsett MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BUF-58-R.Johnson at IND 26.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 11 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 76%

    (8:19) 2-D.Carpenter 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 14%

    (2:43) 6-C.Schmidt punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 17%

    (2:03) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right intended for 81-A.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Williams (39-M.Butler) at BUF 31. 23-A.Williams pushed ob at IND 43 for 26 yards (38-T.Varga). Pass tipped in coverage before INT.