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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 27

Buffalo Bills 24 – Indianapolis Colts 8

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 2-D.Carpenter 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.74 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 37, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model