4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 53

Buffalo Bills 27 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 6-C.Schmidt punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +0.61 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.90 EP
  • 14% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 86% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model