Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 24 – Indianapolis Colts 8

(9:56) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to IND 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 15-P.Dorsett MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BUF-58-R.Johnson at IND 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.05 EP
67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 72, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model