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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 1-P.McAfee punts 47 yards to BUF 28, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 34 for 6 yards (92-B.Werner).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 32, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model