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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 2

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(:57) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 10-D.Moncrief for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line, crossing from right.

The Three Options

GO +3.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 2, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model