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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 23

Buffalo Bills 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 2-D.Carpenter 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.91 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 33, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model