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Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
Sunday 2015-09-13 · 13:00 EverBank Field, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

CAR
42.1%
JAX
57.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to JAX: Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.058 vs Cam Newton (CAR) -0.113 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CAR 21
–
JAX 23
Projected margin: JAX by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

CAR

Richie Brockel TE Out Shoulder
Nate Chandler T Out Knee
Star Lotulelei DT Out Foot
Ryan Kalil C Probable Knee
Josh Norman CB Probable Concussion
Teddy Williams CB Probable Groin

JAX

Andre Branch DE Out Knee
Sen'Derrick Marks DT Out Knee
Julius Thomas TE Out Hand
Marqise Lee WR Doubtful Hamstring
Toby Gerhart RB Questionable Abdomen
Michael Bennett DT Probable Ankle
Johnathan Cyprien S Probable Finger
LaRoy Reynolds LB Probable Knee
Bryan Walters WR Probable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 20
–
JAX 9

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:52 FG CAR (7:52) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. CAR-60-Da.Williams was injured during the play. CAR 3 – JAX 0
  • Q1 01:01 FG JAX (1:01) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. CAR 3 – JAX 3
  • Q2 01:56 TD CAR (1:56) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 82-J.Cotchery for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – JAX 3
  • Q2 00:18 TD JAX (:18) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 13-R.Greene for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – JAX 9
  • Q3 09:08 TD CAR (9:08) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right intended for 24-T.Yeldon INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Norman at JAX 30. 24-J.Norman for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – JAX 9
  • Q4 02:46 FG CAR (2:46) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. CAR 20 – JAX 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:42) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 46 yards to CAR 30, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:45) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 47 yards to CAR 27, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at JAX 36 for 37 yards (19-B.Anger).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 62%

    (5:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (1:01) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (14:12) 8-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to JAX 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-R.Greene. PENALTY on JAX-22-A.Colvin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 30.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 81%

    (7:24) 2-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 96%

    (2:00) 1-C.Newton up the middle to JAX 7 for 2 yards (55-D.Skuta).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 17 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 28%

    (11:23) 8-B.Nortman punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:42) 19-B.Anger punts 37 yards to CAR 19, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 13 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:54) 8-B.Nortman punts 56 yards to JAX 2, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-R.Greene to JAX 11 for 9 yards (97-M.Addison).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 11 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:14) 19-B.Anger punts 45 yards to CAR 45, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 45 for no gain (35-D.McCray).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 26%

    (14:57) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to JAX 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 9 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:59) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 56 yards to CAR 5, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 20 for 15 yards (55-D.Skuta; 16-D.Robinson). PENALTY on CAR-21-T.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at CAR 14.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 75%

    (2:46) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 16 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 82%

    (1:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (91-C.Clemons), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:54) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 81-B.Walters to JAX 45 for 13 yards (56-A.Klein).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:13) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 81-B.Walters to JAX 44 for 4 yards (25-B.Benwikere).