Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:59) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 56 yards to CAR 5, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 20 for 15 yards (55-D.Skuta; 16-D.Robinson). PENALTY on CAR-21-T.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at CAR 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.70 EP
65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model