Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 60

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Carolina Panthers 20

(:13) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 81-B.Walters to JAX 44 for 4 yards (25-B.Benwikere).

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP

What Happened

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.59 EP
73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -0.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model