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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 26

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 2-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.08 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model