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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 3

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:01) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.19 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.36 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP