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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 49

Carolina Panthers 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(14:57) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to JAX 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.86 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model