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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 35

Carolina Panthers 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.15 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model