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🏆 65% correct on 854 held-out games

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2025 2026
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NFL Week 10

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Week 9 Storylines

😱 Biggest upset: Minnesota Vikings over Detroit Lions, given only 12% to win. 🎯 The model's boldest correct call: Los Angeles Rams at 86% — and they delivered. 📉 Worst 4th-down call: Kansas City Chiefs cost themselves 1.83 expected points.
🔥 Biggest Game of the Week
NE NE 8-2 #5
@
TB TB 6-3 #11

New England Patriots (#5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#11) — the week's best matchup by power ranking.

Sunday 2025-11-09 · 13:00 ET 🌧 Rain
NE 28 – TB 23
✗ model missed it · had TB 58.1%
Thursday 2025-11-06 · 20:15 ET DIV
LV LV 2-7 Away
@
DEN DEN 8-2 Home
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear
Spread 9.5 O/U 42.5
LV 7 – DEN 10
✓ model called it · had DEN 79.3%
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 09:30 ET
ATL ATL 3-6 Away
@
IND IND 8-2 Home
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome
Spread 6.5 O/U 48.5
ATL 25 – IND 31
✓ model called it · had IND 64.0%
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 13:00 ET UPSET DIV
NO NO 2-8 Away
@
CAR CAR 5-5 Home
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 💨 Windy
Spread 5.5 O/U 38.5
NO 17 – CAR 7
✗ model missed it · had CAR 66.7%
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 13:00 ET
NYG NYG 2-8 Away
@
CHI CHI 6-3 Home
Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌨 Snow
Spread 4.5 O/U 45.5
NYG 20 – CHI 24
✓ model called it · had CHI 55.1%
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 13:00 ET DIV
JAX JAX 5-4 Away
@
HOU HOU 4-5 Home
NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome
Spread -1.5 O/U 37.5
JAX 29 – HOU 36
✓ model called it · had HOU 61.4%
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 13:00 ET UPSET DIV
BUF BUF 6-3 Away
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MIA MIA 3-7 Home
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain
Spread -8.5 O/U 50.5
BUF 13 – MIA 30
✗ model missed it · had BUF 69.6%
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 13:00 ET
BAL BAL 4-5 Away
@
MIN MIN 4-5 Home
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome
Spread -4.5 O/U 48.5
BAL 27 – MIN 19
✓ model called it · had BAL 78.1%
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 13:00 ET
CLE CLE 2-7 Away
@
NYJ NYJ 2-7 Home
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear
Spread -1.5 O/U 37.5
CLE 20 – NYJ 27
✓ model called it · had NYJ 63.9%
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 16:05 ET DIV
ARI ARI 3-6 Away
@
SEA SEA 7-2 Home
Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear
Spread 7.0 O/U 44.5
ARI 22 – SEA 44
✓ model called it · had SEA 64.3%
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 16:25 ET DIV
LA LA 7-2 Away
@
SF SF 6-4 Home
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear
Spread -5.5 O/U 49.5
LA 42 – SF 26
✓ model called it · had LA 62.5%
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 16:25 ET
DET DET 6-3 Away
@
WAS WAS 3-7 Home
FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain
Spread -8.5 O/U 49.5
DET 44 – WAS 22
✓ model called it · had DET 64.7%
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 20:20 ET
PIT PIT 5-4 Away
@
LAC LAC 7-3 Home
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome
Spread 3.0 O/U 45.5
PIT 10 – LAC 25
✓ model called it · had LAC 55.9%
Monday 2025-11-10 · 20:15 ET
PHI PHI 7-2 Away
@
GB GB 5-3-1 Home
Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear
Spread 1.5 O/U 45.5
PHI 10 – GB 7
✗ model missed it · had GB 50.1%