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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread -10.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

LAC
75.0%
TEN
25.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.201 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Cam Ward (TEN) -0.270 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.120 EPA/dropback
  • TEN defense: +0.151 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • LAC on 3 more days rest than TEN

Predicted Final Score

LAC 28
–
TEN 17
Projected margin: LAC by 11 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

LAC

Tony Jefferson S Out Hamstring
Hassan Haskins RB Out Hamstring
Tarheeb Still CB Out Knee
Josh Harris LS Questionable Chest
Will Dissly TE Questionable Illness
Mekhi Becton G Questionable Knee
Deane Leonard CB Questionable Knee

TEN

Xavier Woods S Out Hamstring
Arden Key LB Out Quadricep
Calvin Ridley WR Out Hamstring
Jeffery Simmons DT Out Hamstring
Bryce Oliver WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 27
–
TEN 20

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:25 TD TEN (11:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 50-C.Barton at LAC 24. 50-C.Barton for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – TEN 6
  • Q1 07:29 TD LAC (7:29) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 44-S.Matlock for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – TEN 7
  • Q1 03:13 TD TEN (3:13) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to TEN 33, Center-41-R.Lovato. 17-C.Dike for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – TEN 13
  • Q2 14:09 FG LAC (14:09) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 10 – TEN 14
  • Q2 08:41 TD LAC (8:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 1-Q.Johnston for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 16 – TEN 14
  • Q2 05:07 FG TEN (5:07) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. LAC 17 – TEN 17
  • Q2 00:25 FG LAC (:25) 11-C.Dicker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 20 – TEN 17
  • Q4 13:02 TD LAC (13:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 26 – TEN 17
  • Q4 04:23 FG TEN (4:23) 6-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. LAC 27 – TEN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 37%

    (12:09) 3-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to LAC 15, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 35%

    (4:46) 3-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to LAC 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 15 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:13) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to TEN 33, Center-41-R.Lovato. 17-C.Dike for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (14:09) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 16 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:11) 3-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to LAC 30, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 78%

    (5:07) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 19 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:00) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to TEN 43, Center-41-R.Lovato, fair catch by 17-C.Dike. Penalty on TEN-52-J.Williams, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:31) 3-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to LAC 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Davis pushed ob at LAC 26 for 3 yards (54-D.Mausi).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 72%

    (:25) 11-C.Dicker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (13:28) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to TEN 8, Center-41-R.Lovato. 17-C.Dike to TEN 28 for 20 yards (0-D.Henley).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (7:09) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to LAC 1 for no gain (2-E.Molden; 6-D.Perryman). LAC-99-J.Caldwell was injured during the play.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:02) 3-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to LAC 34, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Davis to LAC 40 for 6 yards (88-D.Martin-Robinson; 36-J.Chestnut).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 93%

    (4:23) 6-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.