4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 93

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to TEN 33, Center-41-R.Lovato. 17-C.Dike for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -3.49 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.58 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 93, worth -5.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -3.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 51, worth -3.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model