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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 49

Tennessee Titans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 3-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to LAC 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.34 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model