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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 9

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 9, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP