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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 58

Tennessee Titans 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 3-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to LAC 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Davis pushed ob at LAC 26 for 3 yards (54-D.Mausi).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.89 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model