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Chicago Bears

5-3 HC Ben Johnson
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Cincinnati Bengals

3-6 HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2025-11-02 · 13:00 ET Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

CHI
57.5%
CIN
42.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CIN defense: +0.170 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Joe Flacco (CIN): -0.100 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CHI offense: -0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CHI 24 17–31
–
CIN 22 15–29
Projected margin: CHI by 2 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 9

CHI

D'Andre Swift RB Out Groin
Dominique Robinson DE Out Ankle
Roschon Johnson RB Out Back
Luther Burden III WR Out Concussion
Amen Ogbongbemiga LB Questionable Knee

CIN

Trey Hendrickson DE Doubtful Hip
Logan Wilson LB Doubtful Calf
Marco Wilson CB Doubtful Hamstring
Joe Flacco QB Questionable Shoulder
Oren Burks LB Questionable Groin
Dalton Risner G Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 47
–
CIN 42

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 43 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 15:00 TD CIN 8-C.Santos kicks 63 yards from CHI 35 to CIN 2. 15-C.Jones for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – CIN 6
  • Q1 08:50 TD CHI (8:50) (Shotgun) 75-O.Trapilo reported in as eligible. 2-D.Moore pass short right to 18-C.Williams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – CIN 7
  • Q1 05:46 FG CIN (5:46) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CHI 7 – CIN 10
  • Q2 15:00 TD CHI (15:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – CIN 10
  • Q2 05:51 FG CIN (5:51) 2-E.McPherson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CHI 14 – CIN 13
  • Q2 01:33 FG CHI (1:33) 8-C.Santos 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 17 – CIN 13
  • Q2 01:18 TD CIN (1:18) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 17 – CIN 19
  • Q3 08:14 TD CHI (8:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 23 – CIN 20
  • Q3 05:22 TD CIN (5:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short right to 5-T.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 24 – CIN 26
  • Q3 02:03 TD CHI (2:03) 38-B.Brown left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 30 – CIN 27
  • Q4 12:08 FG CHI (12:08) 8-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 34 – CIN 27
  • Q4 05:03 TD CHI (5:03) 2-D.Moore left end to CIN 1 for 16 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt; 22-G.Stone). Cincinnati challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 2-D.Moore left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 40 – CIN 27
  • Q4 01:47 TD CIN (1:47) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep middle to 86-N.Fant for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-D.Hardy]. CHI 41 – CIN 33
  • Q4 00:58 TD CIN (:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 41 – CIN 41
  • Q4 00:25 TD CHI (:25) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 84-C.Loveland for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 47 – CIN 42

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

    (8:50) (Shotgun) 75-O.Trapilo reported in as eligible. 2-D.Moore pass short right to 18-C.Williams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 89%

    (5:46) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 87%

    (:49) 25-K.Monangai right guard to CIN 20 for 5 yards (49-B.Carter; 44-D.Knight).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 12 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:20) 8-R.Rehkow punts 53 yards to CHI 18, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (10:21) 19-T.Taylor punts 69 yards to CIN 5, Center-46-S.Daly. 15-C.Jones to CIN 15 for 10 yards (48-D.Jackson; 43-C.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 95%

    (5:51) 2-E.McPherson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.81 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (1:33) 8-C.Santos 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 81%

    (:08) 8-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (58-J.Ossai), Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 93%

    (12:08) 8-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 68%

    (5:58) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 74%

    (3:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to CHI 12 for 21 yards (49-T.Edmunds).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 91 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:24) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to CIN 43, Center-46-S.Daly. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 45 for 2 yards (44-N.Sewell).

    See the full breakdown →