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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 74

Chicago Bears 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 19-T.Taylor punts 69 yards to CIN 5, Center-46-S.Daly. 15-C.Jones to CIN 15 for 10 yards (48-D.Jackson; 43-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.17 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP