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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 71

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 8-R.Rehkow punts 53 yards to CHI 18, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.35 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 29, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model